empty
17.12.2024 03:24 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 17th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.0506 and planned to make trading decisions from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A break and retest of this range from below provided an excellent entry point for selling the euro, which resulted in a decline of over 30 points. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The IFO data from Germany was very disappointing, as both indicators came in below economists' forecasts. The decline in the business climate index and economic expectations led to a sharp intraday drop in the euro. The second half of the day promises to be equally interesting. Ahead are figures on the change in retail sales and industrial production in the US. A decline in these indicators will hit the US dollar hard, leading to a rise in the pair during the US session. In case of strong data, the euro will fall further, which I intend to take advantage of.

A false breakout near 1.0477, a support formed by yesterday's results, will be a suitable condition for building long positions, aiming for a return to 1.0506.A breakout and retest of this range, similar to the analysis above, will confirm the correct entry point for buying, with a target of 1.0536. The furthest target will be the maximum of 1.0567, where I will take profits. Testing this level will restore bullish market prospects for the euro.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0477 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair will only increase, leading to a larger drop. In that case, I will enter only after a false breakout near support at 1.0458. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0430, targeting a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro rises on weak US retail sales data, defending resistance at 1.0506, which acted as support this morning, will be a priority for sellers. A false breakout there will restore bearish momentum and provide an entry point for short positions, targeting support at 1.0477. A break and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will offer another selling opportunity, aiming for the 1.0458 minimum, which will shift the market back in favor of the bears. The furthest target will be the level around 1.0430, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and there is no bearish activity near 1.0506, where the moving averages are also located (favoring sellers), I will delay selling until testing the next resistance at 1.0536. I will also sell there, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0567, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report Analysis:

The COT report for December 10 showed a rise in short positions and a reduction in long ones. However, the overall figures kept the balance of power in the market practically unchanged.

  • Long non-commercial positions decreased by 10,318 to 157,375.
  • Short non-commercial positions increased by 7,766 to 232,948.
  • The gap between long and short positions widened by 4,450.

In the near future, the Fed's final meeting of the year will likely result in a decision to cut interest rates, which has recently limited the dollar's growth and supported demand for risky assets. If the Fed adopts a more cautious stance for next year, bearish pressure on EUR/USD will increase significantly.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating the pair's continued decline.

Note: The author analyzes moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which may differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0485 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths out volatility and noise to identify the current trend. Period: 50 (yellow line) and 30 (green line).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA (12), Slow EMA (26), Signal SMA (9).
  • Bollinger Bands: Measures price volatility. Period: 20.
  • Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long Non-commercial Positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short Non-commercial Positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net Non-commercial Position: Difference between short and long positions.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Sell
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 18th (Review of Morning Trades). Pound Rises After Inflation Growth

In my morning forecast, I highlighted 1.2695 as a key level for market entry decisions. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to understand the outcome. While a decline occurred, high volatility

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:44 2024-12-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD: December 18 – Trading Plan for the U.S. Session (Review of Morning Trades). Eurozone Inflation Continues to Decline

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0506 level as a key decision point for market entry. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. A rise followed

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:40 2024-12-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which began on Monday. Yesterday, the market had valid reasons

Paolo Greco 07:34 2024-12-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on December 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued trading within a clear sideways channel. Neither macroeconomic nor fundamental factors can break the pair

Paolo Greco 07:34 2024-12-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Review of GBP/USD on December 18; The British Pound Remains in High Spirits

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued upward movement and tested the Ichimoku indicator lines. As a result, a reversal is quite likely today. However, remember that today's key events

Paolo Greco 02:57 2024-12-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Review of EUR/USD on December 18; Flat Narrows Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade on Tuesday within a range-bound channel and a state of total flat movement. Volatility is decreasing daily, and the price action is becoming

Paolo Greco 02:57 2024-12-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 17th (Analysis of Morning Trades). Pound Rose After Labor Market Data

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2665 and planned to make trading decisions from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:28 2024-12-17 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 17? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair failed to continue its downward movement and could not break through the 1.2613 level. There were

Paolo Greco 07:21 2024-12-17 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on December 17? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade within the horizontal channel of 1.0451–1.0596. We have specifically zoomed out the chart

Paolo Greco 07:21 2024-12-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.